8080 Hwy 99 E

Los Molinos, CA 96055

$440,000F

10 bd · 10.0 ba · — sqft · Built 1947 · Townhouse · Active · 758 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $0/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$733
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-3,041/mo
• Annual: $-36,489/yr
• Cap rate: -2.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -29.62%
• DSCR: -0.32
• 1% rule: 0.00%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 10-bed/10.0-bath townhouse listed at $440k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• It's been on market 758 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#650 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime B; Watch: cost of living D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Los Molinos Unified (rural): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #339 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 758 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.