90 bd · 90.0 ba ·
2,027 sqft ·
Built 1944
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 115 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$13,587/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$5,454
Tax + insurance
−$1,733
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,853
Net cashflow
$3,547/mo
Annual
$42,558/yr
Cap rate
10.39%
Cash-on-cash
14.61%
DSCR
1.65
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$291,200
Investor read
This is a 9 × 10-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.04M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $394/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.04M).
It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($946k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $946k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $111k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $104k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
Wilson Elementary District (4261) (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #235 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #169 of 218 statewide, top 79%, 582 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 51% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 36 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
12 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $195k; list at $1.04M implies a 433% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $291k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$179k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-00X4YZC5FPXQGH
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29