3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,260 sqft ·
Built 1928
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,158/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$358
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$243
Net cashflow
$-125/mo
Annual
$-1,501/yr
Cap rate
5.14%
Cash-on-cash
-4.12%
DSCR
0.82
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (17.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (10.9% below list).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $108k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities D-.
Alton CUSD 11 (suburban): math 12% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #544 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Alton High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 1,990 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0215MMFQXFG86S
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29