45 Chalybes Rd

Roxbury, CT 06783

$995,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,261/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$769
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,105
• Net cashflow: $-1,831/mo
• Annual: $-21,969/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $672k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $526k (47.1% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($905k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $526k (47.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shepaug Valley School (math 61% / reading 76%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 494 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; list at $995k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.