1800 Lick Branch Rd

Glasgow, KY 42141

$175,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,445 sqft · Built 1800 · SingleFamily · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $97/mo
• Annual: $1,160/yr
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#92 in KY, #3,738 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Barren County (rural): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #52 of 165 in KY (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 349 students, 62% FRL); Barren County Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 652 students, 53% FRL); Barren County High School (math 27% / reading 41%, grade F, #89 of 254 statewide, top 36%, 1,389 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 298 active listings in the ZIP; 283 units permitted in Barren County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Barren County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $133k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Glasgow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.