5316 Robert Scott Dr S

Jacksonville, FL 32207

$199,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,781/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-777/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-777/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.9% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Love Grove Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 381 students, 54% FRL); Southside Middle School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 844 students, 57% FRL); Englewood High School (math 21% / reading 21%, grade F, #551 of 667 statewide, top 83%, 1,741 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $200k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.