4925 Holly

Long Beach, CA 90805

$148,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 341 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $455/mo
• Annual: $5,465/yr
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $41,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#319 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Long Beach Unified (urban): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #216 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 1.9% in Long Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.