3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,753 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,344/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,152
Tax + insurance
−$366
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$492
Net cashflow
$333/mo
Annual
$3,994/yr
Cap rate
8.11%
Cash-on-cash
6.49%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$61,530
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $216k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#331 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
Bessemer City (suburban): math 3% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #120 of 129 in AL (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Greenwood Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #508 of 627 statewide, top 84%, 286 students, 77% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.8%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.9% in Bessemer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-036RJHC77V0A02
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29