3073 Willow Grn #36

The Meadows, FL 34235

$225,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · Built 1980 · Condo · Active · 450 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$551
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,167/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (1.2% below list).
• It's been on market 450 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#465 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $225k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 450 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.