2841 Citrus Lake Dr Unit K201

Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$395,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Built 1992 · Condo · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$658
• HOA: −$788
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$970
• Net cashflow: $130/mo
• Annual: $1,564/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $395k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $395k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $389k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 425 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $4,618/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.