4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,332 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 128 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,497/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,701
Tax + insurance
−$858
HOA
−$54
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$944
Net cashflow
$-60/mo
Annual
$-726/yr
Cap rate
6.15%
Cash-on-cash
-0.50%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$144,197
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $515k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-726/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $506k (1.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (12.7% below list).
It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($453k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $450k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: East Canyon Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 357 statewide, top 70%, 692 students, 33% FRL); Sage Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 55%, grade F, #68 of 109 statewide, top 62%, 810 students, 28% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,497/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 683% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-03XEPE5QG57YQR
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29