1406 State Hwy 2078

Olive Hill, KY 41164

$92,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$487
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $173/mo
• Annual: $2,074/yr
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $26,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($642 loan paydown + $909 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#160 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tygart Creek Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 342 students, 68% FRL); West Carter Middle School (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #112 of 217 statewide, top 53%, 366 students, 65% FRL); West Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 522 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.7% in Olive Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.