3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,280 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 113 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,007/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$383
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$421
Net cashflow
$-4/mo
Annual
$-47/yr
Cap rate
6.27%
Cash-on-cash
-0.07%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$64,397
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-47/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (12.7% below list).
It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $201k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1819 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in Uhland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-03Y5YCC4AR1J1G
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29