3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,242 sqft ·
Built 2010
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 357 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,145/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$269
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$241
Net cashflow
$-20/mo
Annual
$-234/yr
Cap rate
6.11%
Cash-on-cash
-0.67%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-234/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (2.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (8.4% below list).
It's been on market 357 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#940 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Como-Pickton CISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #441 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hopkins County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 357 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29