468 Oakland Rd

Madison, AL 35758

$199,800C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Active · 366 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $48/mo
• Annual: $572/yr
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $55,944

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($572/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Madison City (suburban): math 51% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #4 of 129 in AL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $200k implies a 589% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.