944 Lite N Tie Rd

Gray, GA 31211

$90,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $485/mo
• Annual: $5,826/yr
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.12%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner Woods Elementary School (math 58% / reading 42%, grade D+, #255 of 1,228 statewide, top 21%, 615 students, 49% FRL); Gray Station Middle School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 653 students, 45% FRL); Jones County High School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 1,626 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.2% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.