140 Friar Tuck Rd

Cleveland, TX 77371

$149,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$470
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-25/yr
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.54%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-25/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (0.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $246 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?