3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,580 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 135 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,036/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$417
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$428
Net cashflow
$-119/mo
Annual
$-1,427/yr
Cap rate
5.72%
Cash-on-cash
-2.04%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$70,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (6.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.5% below list).
It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $204k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Cook Jr El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 519 students, 96% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11805% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,036/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-05BJ8JDQ66JN9K
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29