1050 Highway 44 W #77

Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$24,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 258 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$128
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $652/mo
• Annual: $7,821/yr
• Cap rate: 59.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 188.62%
• DSCR: 9.39
• 1% rule: 6.45%
• Cash to close: $6,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $24k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $24k).
• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $169 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $735 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 59.1% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.