3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,600 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 657 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,429/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,510
Tax + insurance
−$480
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$510
Net cashflow
$-71/mo
Annual
$-854/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.06%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$80,640
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-854/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (3.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (15.6% below list).
It's been on market 657 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $243k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 477 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 657 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt, indicating significant neglect.
Major: Exterior Painting
— No photos of exterior paint, but based on condition, it's likely faded or peeling.
Major: Interior Painting
— No photos of interior paint, but based on exterior, it's likely faded or peeling.
Major: Flooring
— No photos of flooring, but based on exterior, it's likely outdated or damaged.
Major: HVAC/Plumbing
— No photos of HVAC/mechanicals, but based on exterior, it's likely outdated or in need of maintenance.
Major: Landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt, indicating significant neglect.
CashFlowRE · CFR-05Y2T46XDEAX3W
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29