9140 Black Heath Cir

Charlotte, NC 28214

$125,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,001/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$245
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $472/mo
• Annual: $5,659/yr
• Cap rate: 10.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.17%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#26 in NC, #2,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #85 of 178 in NC (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,969 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (5,377 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at +53% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.1% in Charlotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Significant weathering and discoloration
• Moderate: Flooring — Worn appearance
• Moderate: Interior walls/paint — Discoloration and paint wear
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Functional but dated