673 School Center Aly

Richmond, VA 23222

$365,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,172 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,956/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$608
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,752/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $365k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (19.0% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $296k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George W. Carver Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,082 of 1,108 statewide, top 98%, 420 students, 98% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #267 of 342 statewide, top 78%, 430 students, 98% FRL); John Marshall High (math 37% / reading 74%, grade C, #278 of 319 statewide, top 87%, 600 students, 113% FRL) — zoned schools average 103% FRL vs 74% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,956/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1325% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.