411 S 5th St

Auburn, IL 62615

$115,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-84/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $32,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $116k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-84/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (22.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $90k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#666 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Auburn CUSD 10 (town): math 12% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #494 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.