9164 Quincy Ave

Hesperia, CA 92345

$405,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,939/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$589
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $-391/mo
• Annual: $-4,696/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $294k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,009 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime D-.
• Hesperia Unified (suburban): math 20% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #353 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Hesperia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,939/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 2768% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?