21-05 30th Ave

New York, NY 11102

$1,399,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,337
• Tax + insurance: −$941
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,395
• Net cashflow: $733/mo
• Annual: $8,791/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $391,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $366/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.14M (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.36M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.14M (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $11,405/mo this rent would consume 142% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2407% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?