121 Hammond Rd

Thiells, NY 10984

$739,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,164 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 299 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,875
• Tax + insurance: −$2,737
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,522
• Net cashflow: $-885/mo
• Annual: $-10,624/yr
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.81%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $206,920

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $739k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-885 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $583k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $725k (1.9% below list).
• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($650k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $583k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Haverstraw-Stony Point CSD (North Rockland) (suburban): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #427 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $739k implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Thiells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?