104 Patriot Ln

St. Augustine Shores, FL 32033

$348,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,277 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$31
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-416/mo
• Annual: $-4,988/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $97,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (36.8% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $348k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in St. Augustine Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.