187 Hawthorne Ct

Jackson, PA 18372

$309,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$408
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-756/mo
• Annual: $-9,072/yr
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.49%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-756 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (43.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (43.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-53 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.