4 Belden St

Salem, NJ 08079

$144,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,135/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $664/mo
• Annual: $7,969/yr
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.76%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $40,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $449 of equity ($996 loan paydown + $-547 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#462 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Salem City School District (town): math 6% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #464 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 8.1% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,135/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 663% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.