3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,438 sqft ·
Built 2020
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 111 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,308/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,411
Tax + insurance
−$627
HOA
−$59
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$485
Net cashflow
$-273/mo
Annual
$-3,277/yr
Cap rate
5.07%
Cash-on-cash
-4.35%
DSCR
0.81
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$75,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (17.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (14.2% below list).
It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $221k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Anita Scott El (math 53% / reading 40%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 47% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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