137 Country Estates Rd

Greenville, NY 12083

$265,000D+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,588 sqft · Built 2000 · Townhouse · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$659
• HOA: −$153
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-424/mo
• Annual: $-5,093/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-424 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (15.1% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#713 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Greenville Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #338 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Scott M Ellis Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 492 students, 37% FRL); Greenville Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 229 students, 38% FRL); Greenville High School (math 87% / reading 90%, grade A, #294 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 359 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $265k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.