493 Madonna

Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$135,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Pending · 366 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,698/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$579
• HOA: −$191
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-137/mo
• Annual: $-1,646/yr
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.19%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (17.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?