3528 Council Rd

Blythe, GA 30805

$269,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,556/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-381/mo
• Annual: $-4,566/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (42.3% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#347 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blythe Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 292 students, 98% FRL); Hephzibah Middle School (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #388 of 470 statewide, top 83%, 517 students, 98% FRL); Hephzibah High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #385 of 424 statewide, top 92%, 1,072 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.