1120 Lincoln St

Kinston, NC 28501

$53,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 388 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,157/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax + insurance: −$577
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $708/yr
• Cap rate: 17.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.26%
• DSCR: 2.75
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $14,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($708/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• It's been on market 388 days — a 12% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#640 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southeast Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,410 statewide, top 97%, 190 students, 97% FRL); Rochelle Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #462 of 475 statewide, top 98%, 466 students, 98% FRL); Kinston High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #459 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $53k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.8% in Kinston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 388 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?