3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,332 sqft ·
Built 1955
· Other
· Active
· 183 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,329/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$75
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$279
Net cashflow
$372/mo
Annual
$4,466/yr
Cap rate
10.18%
Cash-on-cash
13.88%
DSCR
1.62
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$32,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $115k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#896 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
Marion CUSD 2 (urban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #317 of 620 in IL (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.0% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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