1380 State St

New Haven, CT 06511

$414,900B

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,101 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Under Contract · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,901/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$680
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,239
• Net cashflow: $1,806/mo
• Annual: $21,672/yr
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.65%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $116,172

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1.5ba + 1×5bd/1.5ba units multifamily listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $903/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $415k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $390k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln-Bassett School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #551 of 553 statewide, top 100%, 237 students, 95% FRL); James Hillhouse High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #188 of 194 statewide, top 98%, 1,139 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 66% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 5% at this address vs 18% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the New Haven School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,901/mo this rent would consume 118% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?