8172 N 80th Ln

Peoria, AZ 85345

$499,990F

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,762 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$136
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-1,190/mo
• Annual: $-14,277/yr
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.20%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $139,997

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (39.2% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $304k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 333 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At $3,040/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1879% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.