50 80|50 Private Residence Club A Canyon Blvd #a15-7 Unit A15-7

Mammoth Lakes, CA 93546

$215,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$2,102
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$883
• Net cashflow: $-268/mo
• Annual: $-3,214/yr
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (18.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $215k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#213 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, crime D, cost of living F.
• Mammoth Unified (town): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #549 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 50% of rent.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 123 units permitted in Mono County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mono County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.3% in Mammoth Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,203/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 182% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.