2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
414 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Manufactured
· Active
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,360/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$209
Tax + insurance
−$133
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$286
Net cashflow
$732/mo
Annual
$8,787/yr
Cap rate
30.31%
Cash-on-cash
85.79%
DSCR
4.82
1% rule
3.41%
Cash to close
$11,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#277 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Pacheco Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #264 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 30.3% vs local median 3.5% in Anderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0BECQE54KCTFKA
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29