3111 Cottage Hill Pl

Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$393,900F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,627/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-500/mo
• Annual: $-6,003/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $110,292

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $394k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-500 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Asbury Elementary School (math 69% / reading 64%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 975 students, 38% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.