706 Arch St

Mount Airy, NC 27030

$139,900C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,294 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,609/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $410/mo
• Annual: $4,916/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#473 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Mount Airy City Schools (town): math 51% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #69 of 178 in NC (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 243 units permitted in Surry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Surry County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $140k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.1% in Mount Airy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.