1446 Gibson Rd Unit D50

Hulmeville, PA 19020

$108,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 303 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax + insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $903/mo
• Annual: $10,835/yr
• Cap rate: 16.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.83%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $30,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#621 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bensalem Township SD (suburban): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #447 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Russell C Struble El Sch (math 25% / reading 51%, grade F, #990 of 1,518 statewide, top 66%, 499 students, 44% FRL); Cecelia Snyder Ms (math 10% / reading 37%, grade F, #424 of 512 statewide, top 83%, 431 students, 56% FRL); Bensalem Twp Hs (math 61% / reading 10%, grade F, #308 of 437 statewide, top 71%, 2,120 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.5% in Hulmeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.