111 Lilli's Ln

Boerne, TX 78013

$401,950D-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,539 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,160/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,108
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$83
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-364/mo
• Annual: $-4,368/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $112,546

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $402k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $316k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#87 in TX, #3,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cibolo Creek El (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 471 students, 21% FRL); Boerne Middle South (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 911 students, 18% FRL); Boerne - Samuel V Champion H S (math 59% / reading 83%, grade B+, #114 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,014 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.4% in Boerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.