497 Natasha Dr

Auburn, GA 30011

$300,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-200/mo
• Annual: $-2,405/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#41 in GA, #4,693 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 766 students, 61% FRL); Apalachee High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #203 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,894 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.