3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,140 sqft ·
Built 2022
· Manufactured
· Active
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,321/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$194
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$487
Net cashflow
$407/mo
Annual
$4,883/yr
Cap rate
8.37%
Cash-on-cash
7.42%
DSCR
1.33
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (1.2% below list).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $231k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Freeport Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 557 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $200k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0BYD95ESS3QCV4
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29