6189 Valdez Dr

Morrow, GA 30273

$192,900C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $243/mo
• Annual: $2,922/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $54,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#229 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roberta T. Smith Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #751 of 1,228 statewide, top 61%, 781 students, 90% FRL); Rex Mill Middle School (math 17% / reading 29%, grade F, #321 of 470 statewide, top 69%, 974 students, 91% FRL); Morrow High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,980 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.0% in Morrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.