7627 E 112th Ave

Winfield, IN 46307

$258,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,729 sqft · Built 2009 · Townhouse · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,445/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$115
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $148/mo
• Annual: $1,773/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $72,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $258k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (5.2% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#121 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 739 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Winfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.