302 Pine St

Kalkaska, MI 49646

$148,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 877 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 295 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-884/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $41,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-884/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kalkaska Public Schools (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #356 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 38 units permitted in Kalkaska County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kalkaska County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $127k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in Kalkaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.