76 Valley View Rd

High Bridge, NJ 08829-1318

$300,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$1,075
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-202/mo
• Annual: $-2,423/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (11.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#178 in NJ, #4,717 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• North Hunterdon-Voorhees Regional High School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #103 of 472 in NJ (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: High Bridge Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #661 of 1,303 statewide, top 54%, 209 students, 16% FRL); High Bridge Middle School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D+, #129 of 431 statewide, top 32%, 144 students, 12% FRL); Voorhees High School (math 36% / reading 57%, grade D-, #129 of 399 statewide, top 33%, 672 students, 5% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?