110 Tamarack

Patton Village, CA 96113

$49,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,503 sqft · Built 1954 · Other · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,372/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $782/mo
• Annual: $9,386/yr
• Cap rate: 25.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.41%
• DSCR: 4.04
• 1% rule: 2.80%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,275 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Sage Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,169 of 1,400 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $36k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.